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Is the Stock Market Rally Near?

By: Stock Trader, Sun Jul 25th, 2010

The moment you think you know what the market will do, it will turn and bite you. But best bet is to be a contrarian after trends are exhausted. That is detectable in various technical indicators:

http://www.tradingstocks.net/html/2010_stock_market_forecast.html

Using technical indicators, one could have a successful stock market forecast in April 2010. Financial media writes alog about fundamentals, earnings, economic news. But everyday there are good news and there are bad news. Media chooses the headline based on how the stock market reacts. Earnings does not drive the stocks. Good earnings appear at the top. Earnings decline AFTER the market declines:

http://www.tradingstocks.net/html/earnings_does_not_drive_stocks.html

What moves the stock market? Social mood moves the stocks. A bull market is the result of optimistic social mood. A bear market comes when the social mood declines. Our economic problems are not about what we are doing today. It is about what we have already done. Economy is not a machine that you can oil and grease and fine tune to run at a certain pace. Due to earlier optimism, entire population has already borrowed all they can for decades. Money supply was inflated with borrowed money. Prices and salaries were inflated with borrowed money. What we borrowed is our money supply. Banks create money when we borrow:

http://www.tradingstocks.net/html/banks_create_money.html

And this money supply which is the principal, needs to be paid back with interest! I think it is obvious to the alert reader that it is an impossible proposition if borrowing does not expand exponentially. Money supply is credit, and credit can deflate and it is deflating despite Bernanke's and Obama's best efforts. Crash is coming, and Great Depression will look pale compared to what we are facing. The time to fix it was decades ago. It is too late now. Obama will be blamed for it as every president was blamed for his bear market term.

 

 

 

Trading Volatility and Adjustments with Options
by San Jose Options Mentoring, October of 2008

With in this article we'd like to discuss management tactics which can be beneficial in the organization of an options account. This important concept can be functional to each type of option spread such as the Condors, Calendars, Butterflies, Diagonals, and the rest.

At the time that this article is being presented (the latter part of 2008), the VIX is presently in its higher range of the previous couple years, making options inflated in value. So while making adjustments nowadays, each trader must make it his duty to know where volatility is and forecast where it is leading to. Should we acquire expensive, inflated options or do we persuade somebody else to buy them? What is the latest volatility forecast on the major markets?

Most option traders make the mistake of obtaining OTM Calls and Puts to change their portfolio at which time the volatility is moving down, and they don't see why their options lose worth so quickly. Each retail option trader should comprehend how volatility affects an option strategy to create intellectual changes to their positions.

A STUDY IN TODAY'S OPTION MARKET

For instance, let's say we are in an Iron Condor and the stock market is trending up near the short strike, and we are getting to the instant where we need to formulate an adjustment to supervise our possible danger. If this is the instance, subsequently the IV may possibly have dropped a small amount. We pull up the chart on volatility of the underlying, and we investigate the IV and see it is oversold and will soon rise again.

There are many option strategies and morphing concepts, so how can we make a good decision on what to do in this case? A critical step in the decision making is graphing the current volatility inside the options market. We usually use the VIX and RVX. Is the volatility bottomed and increasing? Is it at a peak and coming back down? Is it barely moving? What is happening in the options market and where is the volatility in relationship to its history? We additionally need to study the technical analysis of our traded asset. Where is the price headed? We have to comprehend Vega and the other option Greeks to accomplish high probability changes to our positions. In today's example, if the volatility prediction is up, it would make sense to add some positive Vega to our portfolio.

Some positive Vega strategies include Broken Wing Butterflies, Debit Spreads and Calendars. There are many more techniques which we discuss in our mentoring program.

In summary, prior to doing adjustments to your portfolio or option position, consider the volatility chart of your asset as well as the major markets. This will aid you to make better adjustment choices and reduce risk while maximizing your profits.

 

 

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